ELV Kick-Frenzy Blame Misplaced?

As an International Rugby Board conference met today to discuss the Experimental Law Variations that were introduced to rugby union globally last year, discussion about their appropriateness has been resurgent. Although some have been sanguine about their effects on the sport, the law variations have been controversial. Among the loudest complaints has been the claim that the ELVs have turned rugby union into a "kickfest" with aimless hoofing of the ball taking the place of exciting play.

Without trying to sort out the reasoning behind this claim, Armchair Playmaker thinks it's a good time to have a look at the way things where before the ELVs. The consternation about the ELVs making rugby union a "tedious display of kicking" might suggest that rugby union before 2008 was a slashing display of running rugby. To jog our memory, let's consider the biggest match played in the year before the ELVs came our way: the 2007 Rugby World Cup Final.

A glance at the match statistics reminds us of a few things. For one, there were zero tries scored in the match. For two, each side only had one clean line break. But that's a pretty superficial peek.

Let's look closer. The stats also say possession was kicked away 92 times in the match (48 times by South Africa and 44 times by England). Meanwhile, there were 185 attempted tackles (97 by South Africa and 88 by England). If we assume that almost all phases of play end with an attempted tackle or a kicked ball, then adding the total tackle attempts to the total number of times possession was kicked away gives us a total of about 277 phases of play. If 92 of those phases involved possession being kicked away, then that means about 33% of the total phases in the match ended with posession being kicked away.

A third. Not a third of the times they had posession. A third of the total phases. So every time the ball went to a player from a ruck, scrum, lineout, kick, etc., there was about a one in three chance a player kicked it away. This estimate is a little rough, and is actually probably a little bit low if we consider that some phases might have had more than one attempted tackle in them if a player was able to break a tackle or two, so the percentage of phases where possession was kicked away may have been even higher.

We know this is just one match, and may not be representative in a lot of ways. But it was also probably the most-watched rugby union match ever. And for every three times a team picked up the ball to play with it, they kicked it away once.

The ELVs, of course, have the convenient alibi of not being at the scene because their global implementation came several months later.

Armchair Playmaker suspects that if you see a side kick away possession a lot in a rugby union match, it has less to do with the ELVs and more to do with the oft-repeated statement, "The contest for possession of the ball is one of rugby’s key
features." You'll find that said in a number of places, such as a playing charter document provided by the IRB. When possession is constantly at risk, territory is at a premium. Kicking is a quick way to gain territory. Seems simple to us. And rugby union still seems okay to us as well.

If rugby union fans really can't stand the kicking, though, they can always play and watch a code that where we usually only see a kick every six tackles. But wait: We also see people saying the ELVs have made rugby union too much like rugby league.

o the ELVs make people kick too much possession away and they make rugby union like rugby league, a sport where people don't need to kick as much possession away because there is less ongoing contest for posession? There's just no pleasing some folks.

The IRB will make a final decision on the ELVs in July. In the meantime, have a look at the video below if you want another chance to see what could be causing such chaos in so many disparate ways--and all at once:

American College Rugby Milestone on TV

Last night marked the first ever U.S. college rugby match shown live on national television. Which network showed it? Thinking of a good guess.

Think again. The first nationally televised American collegiate rugby match wasn't on a specialist sports network, but on BYU TV, the network run by Brigham Young University that airs nationwide on satellite providers cable networks.

If the match is remembered for its television coverage, it will be less remembered for its drama, as national contenders BYU walked away 111-3 winners over Utah State. Whenever the second live television broadcast of a college match takes place, we'll hope it's more of a thriller.

Those interested in getting a look at the match for posterity's sake can see a replay at BYU TV's streaming video site by choosing the "Live TV" section at the botton, then clicking on "Saturday, Mar 28, 2009" at left and then "7:30pm College Rugby" at right.

For a quicker look at BYU in a more evenly-matched challenge, see these brief highlights from BYU's win over the Senior Men's Division I Denver Barbarians in February (though the amateur video is a far cry from the BYU TV production quality, of course):

Anticlimactic Irish Feat Suggests a Modest Proposal

It's difficult to say there's anything ho-hum about the news that Ireland is likely to win its first Six Nations ever this Saturday (technically speaking, because they last won the tournament in 1985 when it was the "Five Nations" tournament), but the fact that Ireland can lose to Wales by 12 points this weekend and still win the tournament takes some intensity out of the "deciding" match.

So far, Ireland has won all four of their Six Nations matches so far and scored 46 more points than their opponents in those matches, while Wales has won three of the four matches and scored 21 more points than their opponents. If Ireland loses this weekend, the tournament is decided by total points difference throughout the tournament. For example, if Wales wins by 12 this weekend, both sides will have won four of five matches, and Ireland will have a points difference of 34 points, while Wales will have a points difference of 33 points. In that case, a beaten Ireland walks off the ground with the tournament trophy.

In Cardiff.

Awkward...

A similar situation happened last season, when Wales beat France on the last weekend of the Six Nations for an unbeaten "Grand Slam" tournament victory, but Wales had only needed to lose by less than 20 points to win the tournament.

Of course, one could argue that this setup is fine, as Wales can still control their fate by putting a 13-point (or more) beating on Ireland (just as Ireland can render the issue moot by beating Wales), but it's a little bit strange to walk out on the ground with the scoreboard effectively reading "Ireland 13, Wales 0" as far the Six Nations tournament stakes are concerned. Also, the general practice of points differential as a tie-breaker might encourage teams to pour on the points against weaker opponents when a match have already been decided. That seems to be against the spirit of the sport.

Why not make head-to-head matches the first tiebreaker instead? In other words, if two teams each win four of the five matches (or some similar, but less likely combination of equal win-loss records at the top of the table), the first tiebreaker could be head-to-head results--namely which team won when they played one another. Points differential could be the next tiebreaker, such as if three teams all went 4-1 in the tournament and each had beaten only one of the other two teams (for example, if France beat Ireland, Ireland beat Wales, and Wales beat France, but all three sides had won their other matches). Making head-to-head results the primary tiebreaker wouldn't make score differential unimportant, but it would make it a lot harder to lose a match to a team, then walk off with the tournament trophy while your victorious opponent claims the runners-up crown.

Of course, Armchair Playmaker won't advocate tipping the scales against Ireland on a day when even the fountains at the U.S. White House are dyed green, but head-to-head might be the way to go as a general practice.

That said, we have a sneaking suspicion that the Six Nations organizers are looking to Armchair Playmaker for insight on how to run their operation. So let's look at some Irish rugby highlights from recents years to commemorate their likely Six Nations win:

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NRL Season Wastes no Time Getting Started

The 2009 National Rugby League season got a great start today with one match going into extra time and the other decided by a single point in the last five minutes. If the matches for the rest of the weekend and the rest of the season keep up this pace, it will be a good one for sure.

An exciting year will also help to live up to the promise of the sport's recent television promotions, such as this ad for the new season (before the campaign was scrapped as another scandal looms over the NRL and featured player Brett Stewart):



Similarly, Reg Reagan alter ego Matthew Johns is pitching club memberships with the promise of fun for all:



The thriller of the 2009 ads, though, is no doubt this ad for the upcoming State of Origin series:



Will the matches live up to the hype? Let's hope so! Of course, no discussion of NRL promos is complete without the classic "That's my Team" campaign from a few years back: